The rain has come down

This Thursday morning it finally poured down. Lots of water in heavy drops. Some parts of Northwest Skåne have already been severaly flooded, but here around our house it has been surprisingly dry. Like the clouds tease us and go on, not wanting to let go of their precious gift (or horrific bucket-loads - depending on the amount and where it lands).

But this Thursday morning it was finally really wet (well some drops fell already the day before, or the day before that, if I do not remember wrong).

In this area it normally rains around 700 to 800 mm per year  (the source is data from 1961-1990, presented in the very nice compilation from SMHI on the future climate of Skåne, see page 37, "Framtidsklimat i Skåne län")

In the future their will most likely be more precipitation in Skåne, due to climate change. The climate model results indicate that an increase of about 15 - 25 % may occur in Skåne in general (looking at the two scenarios, which scientifically are called RCP 4,5 and RCP 8.5). Very simplified the RCP 4.5 is a scenario where it assumed that we continue to increase our emissions of carbondioxid until 2040, when they slowly decreases due to efficient climate politics, low global population (around 9 billions) and  smart use of energy and land for food production. The RCP 8.5, on the other hand, is a scenario where we (very simplifed) totally fail - and just keep going like today which results in high energy use, over 12 billons people, not a very efficient climate politics, and carbon dioxid emissions which has tripled compared to todays emissions by the end of the century (see page 2 in the SMHI report for more information)

Most of the precipitation will fall during winter (around 25-50% more rain /snow than in the reference period 1961-1990) and/or spring, but there is also a small increase during summer, and autumn, in the climate model results, until the year 2100.

Some of the dark skies just rained over Lund...

But interestingly, the models also show that there may be large variations between the years. So that some years may be very wet, wheras some years may be quite dry.

It surely will be an interesting thing to see how it all turns out.

Tomorrow I will look for a rain-gauge to start measure our everyday rain!